Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 4% Chance of Hitting the Moon. Here’s Why That’s a Scientific Goldmine.

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was, for a brief time, thought to be on a potential collision course with Earth. Now, that has been ruled out, but scientists still believe it has a small chance (only about 4 percent) of smashing into the moon. In that unlikely scenario, there would be a risk of debris breaking off the asteroid and hitting Earth. But it’s not all bad news. The 60-meter-wide asteroid would also create a particularly bright spot on the moon that could help scientists analyze the lunar surface like never before. Paper: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.10666](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.10666)